Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 10.014025 11.774242 13.710332 15.992050 18.601415 21.486021 24.909800
2024-12-22 7.307817 9.568241 12.289106 15.781629 20.119312 25.301217 31.928877
2024-12-29 5.658619 8.121614 11.320315 15.725966 21.574988 29.004903 39.076468
2025-01-05 4.350789 6.786182 10.171575 15.132326 22.108625 31.445073 44.732222
2025-01-12 3.574852 6.002546 9.584555 15.121665 23.299025 34.732016 51.672045
2025-01-19 2.982860 5.362947 9.072305 15.090632 24.375818 37.868520 58.576834
2025-01-26 2.701062 5.152370 9.156387 15.924728 26.756388 43.007953 68.682564
2025-02-02 2.433461 4.911486 9.142983 16.575619 28.880508 47.892462 78.729845
2025-02-09 2.223661 4.731764 9.195118 17.316643 31.183785 53.185549 89.726336
2025-02-16 1.931527 4.345110 8.829227 17.291380 32.204074 56.510589 97.853426
2025-02-23 1.619448 3.860935 8.215277 16.745393 32.268267 58.265333 103.551940
2025-03-02 1.343070 3.396314 7.567911 16.049562 31.980400 59.378115 108.224369
2025-03-09 1.184414 3.161596 7.346073 16.143890 33.142418 63.072473 117.535675
2025-03-16 1.033431 2.915208 7.065851 16.090848 34.025571 66.346590 126.353387
2025-03-23 0.908045 2.704055 6.828012 16.090115 34.997254 69.830731 135.739558
2025-03-30 0.758443 2.399210 6.337926 15.503331 34.767042 71.112021 141.293230
2025-04-06 0.668989 2.232411 6.134603 15.499082 35.682291 74.545565 150.899910
2025-04-13 0.589932 2.076403 5.932354 15.469692 36.534750 77.903319 160.546172
2025-04-20 0.566503 2.077092 6.112218 16.322986 39.293300 85.071830 177.664798
2025-04-27 0.534814 2.046176 6.207773 16.988452 41.700390 91.692702 194.087536
2025-05-04 0.509302 2.029370 6.337137 17.745759 44.361096 98.961198 212.108248
2025-05-11 0.453638 1.901303 6.152340 17.719986 45.291325 102.819538 223.731206
2025-05-18 0.385535 1.712841 5.772019 17.162099 44.973540 104.114434 230.389475